Joe DiNapoli访谈
TradeNet Staff -Neal.: . . . . Sat, Feb 15, 9:57AM PST ( -0900 GMT)
Please post an introductory paragraph explaining what you do, how long you have been involved in the markets etc. to give readers some background information.
Joe DiNapoli: . . . . Sat, Feb 15, 9:57AM PST ( -0900 GMT)
It seems that in one way or another, I've been involved with trading all my life. In 1967 I finished engineering college and began seriously trading. Back in those days, I was dealing with low capitalized, small, over-the-counter issues, where you'd lose 15-25 percent just in the bid/asked spread. We used to margin those "equities", that's using the term loosely, at the company's credit union where I was working. It was definitely spooky. In those days, I was also involved in trading options on stocks. That's before they were listed on exchanges, like they are today. You talk about volatility, when you wanted to sell, the broker would say 'to who?'. It was strictly a bid by appointment situation. We'd generally ended up paying for an exercise to exit a position. I got involved in trading commodities , about 1980. I like the commodity markets. If you can develop strategies to effectively deal with the risk, the advantages far outweigh those of other markets. Since I've learned how to do that, I have substantially decreased the amount of stock and options trading that I do, but I'm still involved. About 1986 I began speaking, initially with Jake Bernstein, at the Futures Symposium International. That's when I started letting myself out to the public. It really mushroomed from there. I've spoken all over the world, in major centers in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. In 1996 alone I've spoken in 22 different countries. That was a bit much, but I couldn't give up the opportunity to speak in places like Tallin, Estonia, St. Petersburg, Russia, and Bombay. I've met fantastic people all over the globe. The industry has been nothing but good to me.
TradeNet Staff -Neal.: . . . . Sat, Feb 15, 9:57AM PST ( -0900 GMT)
Tell us a bit about your trading/investing style, how do you go about it?
Joe DiNapoli: . . . . Sat, Feb 15, 9:57AM PST ( -0900 GMT)
The trading techniques I use are substantially different than those used by other people. I mix leading and lagging indicators and interact with prices based on that approach. I use certain lagging indicators like Displaced Moving Averages and the MACD/Stochastic combination, to determine the trend. Once I'm in a trend, I use Fibonacci analysis, as a leading indicator, to position myself within that trend. The last step is to take Logical Profit Objectives. Those profit objectives are calculated by certain Fibonacci techniques. The approach is mine, since I've spent an awful lot of time developing it. I use Displaced Moving Averages, for example, in very specific and unique ways. I think I've really done my homework on that one, about 3 years worth of research in the early '80s. During the mid-80's, I spent another three years or so determining the most effective method to utilize Fibonacci techniques. I think I've done a good job of separating the best, from the good, or the average. Sometimes it's not a matter of developing a brand new indicator. It's a matter of utilizing an existing indicator in a more effective manner.
TradeNet Staff -Neal.: . . . . Sat, Feb 15, 9:57AM PST ( -0900 GMT)
Can you give an example of what you mean by using an existing indicator in a more effective way?
Joe DiNapoli: . . . . Sat, Feb 15, 9:57AM PST ( -0900 GMT)
OK, lets take moving averages. Instead of using standard moving averages, I use Displaced Moving Averages. In fact, back in the mid '80s, when I started speaking about this, there weren't any computer programs out there that I was aware of, except our own, that would displace a moving average. Prior to that, some people used the opens, instead of the close, to determine the moving average, so that they would know what the moving average value was, before the end of the day. When you displace a moving average say five days, you know what the moving average is going to be up to five days out. There was no longer any reason to use the open. Unfortunately, many of the graphics software programs that displace moving averages today, don't show them past the last days price action. It's an example of programmers creating trading software, rather than traders.
TradeNet Staff -Neal.: . . . . Sat, Feb 15, 9:57AM PST ( -0900 GMT)
What are your profit objectives, and do you have a long-term or short term outlook?
Joe DiNapoli: . . . . Sat, Feb 15, 9:57AM PST ( -0900 GMT)
My profit objectives are a function of the time frame I am trading in. Weekly objectives are much larger than objectives calculated on a five minute chart. The methods of calculation however is exactly the same. If there is one single thing a trader can do to vastly improve his win/loss ratio, it's to use logical profit objectives consistently in his trading plan.
TradeNet Staff -Neal.: . . . . Sat, Feb 15, 9:57AM PST ( -0900 GMT)
How about the downside, what risk tolerance do you have?
Joe DiNapoli: . . . . Sat, Feb 15, 9:57AM PST ( -0900 GMT)
I have a very low risk tolerance . I once heard futures trading described as learning how to juggle dynamite. That's not a bad definition .These days it's the same situation for stocks even though we're in this incredible bull move, just look at the volatility. What you have to get used to is controlling greed so you can realize consistent profit! For a variety of reasons most people can't do that.
TradeNet Staff -Neal.: . . . . Sat, Feb 15, 9:57AM PST ( -0900 GMT)
What steps do you take to control the downside?
Joe DiNapoli: . . . . Sat, Feb 15, 9:57AM PST ( -0900 GMT)
Fibonacci analysis , along with my trend indicators tell me clearly if I'm wrong or if I should get out of a trade. When that happens, I exit at market or look for a way out.
TradeNet Staff -Neal.: . . . . Sat, Feb 15, 9:57AM PST ( -0900 GMT)
Please describe the best and worst investments/trades you have made.
Joe DiNapoli: . . . . Sat, Feb 15, 9:57AM PST ( -0900 GMT)
'Hot' uninformed tips are always the worst. Often they come from an entity that is trying to gain commissions or has a position in the instrument they are tipping. Sometimes big bull moves bail everyone out... that's where the old adage about not confusing a bull market and brains comes from. Informed trading situations that fit my investment criteria are the best and most rewarding trades.
TradeNet Staff -Neal.: . . . . Sat, Feb 15, 9:57AM PST ( -0900 GMT)
Trading/investing is a highly competitive endeavor, what gives you an edge in the market?
Joe DiNapoli: . . . . Sat, Feb 15, 9:57AM PST ( -0900 GMT)
Experience, control, and an excellent approach- as in a method -to trading
TradeNet Staff -Neal.: . . . . Sat, Feb 15, 9:57AM PST ( -0900 GMT)
Everyone is familiar with the old maxim "cut your losses, and let your profits run". Many traders have difficulty deciding when to capture their profits, sometimes letting a profit turn into a loss. What do you use to make a sell decisions to close a trade?
Joe DiNapoli: . . . . Sat, Feb 15, 9:57AM PST ( -0900 GMT)
I don't do either. My profits are let to run only to the extent of a pre calculated objective. This doesn't mean I never have distant objectives, it all depends on my time frame for the trade. Also, I might get back in to the same instrument but it will be only at 'safe ' pre calculated levels. I don't cut my loses, The market does , by violating a pre calculated level or indicator. I just exit the same way I'd get off a street if a truck was bearing down on me. The trick is in having the criteria to see the truck, then the experience and discipline to act on it.
TradeNet Staff -Neal.: . . . . Sat, Feb 15, 9:57AM PST ( -0900 GMT)
What advice can you give to someone who is just entering this field? What would you do to shorten the time and reduce the losses that are usually involved in the learning cycle?
Joe DiNapoli: . . . . Sat, Feb 15, 9:57AM PST ( -0900 GMT)
People trying to gain profit out of this game have a lot of challenges. I'd recommend they seek out traders who know what they are doing AND have the ability to explain what they are doing to others. There's a real educational issue here. If they are working the short time frames ,like 5 minute charts, there's understanding floor mechanics as well. Once they have all that down, then they have to master control... anyone getting week knees out there?
TradeNet Staff -Neal.: . . . . Sat, Feb 15, 9:57AM PST ( -0900 GMT)
If you were to find a perfect trade, what would it be? Please describe what it takes for a trade to be lined up with "all its ducks in a row".
Joe DiNapoli: . . . . Sat, Feb 15, 9:57AM PST ( -0900 GMT)
I'll have to answer this in a general way since most of you are unfamiliar with the specific aspects and details of my trading approach. Trades need to conform to the following criteria. I've used this approach continuously for years. I buy dips in an uptrend and sell rallies in a downtrend. The lagging indicators allow me to determine trend. The leading indicators, primarily Fibonacci analysis, allows me to "safely" place myself within that trend. I use Logical Profit Objectives continually and I have oscillators, that are used as filters, to keep me from entering in the direction of a trend which is too dangerous to bother with. I also have about 8 trading patterns or conditions which act to give me the direction of a market. If they are in conflict with the trend analysis, I always go with what the patterns are telling me. Within that criteria there are obviously standout situations but you wouldn't understand the terms I would have to use to describe them.
TradeNet Staff -Neal.: . . . . Sat, Feb 15, 9:57AM PST ( -0900 GMT)
What markets do you trade?
Joe DiNapoli: . . . . Sat, Feb 15, 9:57AM PST ( -0900 GMT)
Markets that move and conform to proven money making situations. In 95 one of my biggest trades was in the soy bean meal market. I hadn't traded meal for over ten years. The setup was perfect and I moved on it.
TradeNet Staff -Neal.: . . . . Sat, Feb 15, 9:57AM PST ( -0900 GMT)
Would this be appropriate for mutual funds?
Joe DiNapoli: . . . . Sat, Feb 15, 9:57AM PST ( -0900 GMT)
The unqualified answer is yes, but there can be some difficulties. Let's say you're trading a foreign bond fund. The managers of the fund may involve themselves with certain hedging or option writing activities which could affect price in such a way that the Fib analysis would not be as accurate as it would be if you had a pure cash market trade. All in all however the Fib analysis works very well in mutual funds.
TradeNet Staff -Neal.: . . . . Sat, Feb 15, 9:57AM PST ( -0900 GMT)
Is your system mechanical?
Joe DiNapoli: . . . . Sat, Feb 15, 9:57AM PST ( -0900 GMT)
No, but the secret to making a judgmental system good is to make as much of it as possible non-judgmental.
TradeNet Staff -Neal.: . . . . Sat, Feb 15, 9:57AM PST ( -0900 GMT)
How do you calculate the trade profit objective?
Joe DiNapoli: . . . . Sat, Feb 15, 9:57AM PST ( -0900 GMT)
I use one or both of two methods. The first is Fibonacci analysis, see the Fibnodes Web pages. I also use the Oscillator Predictor.
TradeNet Staff -Neal.: . . . . Sat, Feb 15, 9:57AM PST ( -0900 GMT)
What % gain and % loss is typical for your trades?
Joe DiNapoli: . . . . Sat, Feb 15, 9:57AM PST ( -0900 GMT)
It depends on the volatility and time frame of the instrument.
TradeNet Staff -Neal.: . . . . Sat, Feb 15, 9:57AM PST ( -0900 GMT)
What displaced moving averages do you use? For which markets?
Joe DiNapoli: . . . . Sat, Feb 15, 9:57AM PST ( -0900 GMT)
I use the same DMAs for all markets. One the ways you can tell if you're on to something good is if it works across different markets. Otherwise you get into this curve fitting morass that buries so many new technical traders. I use the 3x3, 7x5, 25x5. They are all simple moving averages of the close. The second number is the displacement amount.
TradeNet Staff -Neal.: . . . . Sat, Feb 15, 9:57AM PST ( -0900 GMT)
Are those moving averages appropriate for longer-term traders (daily charts)?
Joe DiNapoli: . . . . Sat, Feb 15, 9:57AM PST ( -0900 GMT)
Yes, in fact I use DMAs for daily, weekly, and monthly charts. I use the MACD Stochastic combination for intra-day as well as daily, weekly, and monthly charts.
TradeNet Staff -Neal.: . . . . Sat, Feb 15, 9:57AM PST ( -0900 GMT)
Do you trade other people's money?
Joe DiNapoli: . . . . Sat, Feb 15, 9:57AM PST ( -0900 GMT)
No, not interested.
What is the worst monthly draw-down you experienced in the past year?
Joe DiNapoli: . . . . Sat, Feb 15, 9:57AM PST ( -0900 GMT)
That is proprietary information, but it was nothing serious.
TradeNet Staff -Neal.: . . . . Sat, Feb 15, 9:57AM PST ( -0900 GMT)
Can you give us an idea of your win/loss ratio?
Joe DiNapoli: . . . . Sat, Feb 15, 9:57AM PST ( -0900 GMT)
For legal reasons I'm reticent to quote numbers, but I will say that employment of these methodologies thoughtfully and correctly can lead to 70 to 90% winners. Some of the reasons you can get such good ratios has to do with the exit criteria as well as the profit objectives. Let's say a mental stop is violated. Rather than exiting at the market or getting hit, you can develop a Fibonacci retracement series and exit at a much more favorable point. This can turn small losers into small winners or break even situations.
TradeNet Staff -Neal.: . . . . Sat, Feb 15, 9:57AM PST ( -0900 GMT)
Are your techniques published? Can I read about them somewhere?
Joe DiNapoli: . . . . Sat, Feb 15, 9:57AM PST ( -0900 GMT)
I have Trading Courses available. With them you get me at no additional charge, within reason of course. Hopefully we'll have a book out later this year, but there continues to be technical difficulties in getting it done the way I want it done.